__  __    __   __  _____      _            _          _____ _          _ _ 
 |  \/  |   \ \ / / |  __ \    (_)          | |        / ____| |        | | |
 | \  / |_ __\ V /  | |__) | __ ___   ____ _| |_ ___  | (___ | |__   ___| | |
 | |\/| | '__|> <   |  ___/ '__| \ \ / / _` | __/ _ \  \___ \| '_ \ / _ \ | |
 | |  | | |_ / . \  | |   | |  | |\ V / (_| | ||  __/  ____) | | | |  __/ | |
 |_|  |_|_(_)_/ \_\ |_|   |_|  |_| \_/ \__,_|\__\___| |_____/|_| |_|\___V 2.1
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<header id="TopLeftHeader"><a class="symbol" href="es/text/shared/05/new_help.html"><div></div></a><a class="logo" href="es/text/shared/05/new_help.html"><p dir="auto">Ayuda de LibreOffice 25.2</p></a><div class="dropdowns"><div class="modules">
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<a id="intro"></a>
  <p id="par_id0403201618694534" class="paragraph" dir="auto">El alisamiento exponencial es un método que empareja los valores reales en una serie temporal para así pronosticar los valores futuros probables.</p>

<p id="par_id0403201618694535" class="paragraph" dir="auto">El alisamiento exponencial triple (ETS, por sus siglas en inglés) es un conjunto de algoritmos en los cuales se procesan la tendencia y las influencias periódicas (de temporada). El alisamiento exponencial doble (EDS) es un algoritmo parecido a ETS, pero sin las influencias periódicas. EDS produce pronósticos lineales.</p>

<div class="tip">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/tip.svg" alt="Icono de consejo" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">Ver el <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing"> Wikipedia sobre algoritmos de alisamiento exponencial</a> para más información.</p></div>
</div>
<br>
  

<a id="target"></a>
<p id="par_id0403201618594534" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">Objetivo (obligatorio):</span> Una fecha, hora, valor numérico o área. El dato señalado por el cual se calcula un pronóstico.</p>


<a id="values"></a>
<p id="par_id040320161859459" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">Valores (obligatorios):</span> una matriz numérica o un intervalo. Los <span class="emph">Valores</span> son los valores históricos para los cuales se quieren pronosticar los próximos puntos.</p>


<a id="timeline"></a>
<p id="par_id0403201618594553" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">plazo (obligatorio):</span> una matriz numérica o un intervalo. El intervalo del plazo (valor de x) de los valores históricos.</p>
<div class="note">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/note.svg" alt="Icono de nota" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">No es necesario que el plazo esté ordenado, ya que las funciones lo ordenarán para realizar los cálculos.<br>Los avances entre los valores del plazo deben ser uniformes.<br>Si no se puede identificar un avance constante en el plazo ordenado, las funciones devolverán el error #¡NUM!<br>Si los intervalos del plazo y los valores históricos no tienen el mismo tamaño, las funciones devolverán el error #N/D.<br>Si el plazo contiene menos de dos períodos de datos, las funciones devolverán el error #¡VALOR!</p></div>
</div>
<br>


<a id="datacompletion"></a>
<p id="par_id0403201618594513" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">compleción_datos (opcional):</span> un valor lógico VERDADERO o FALSO o un valor numérico de 1 o 0; el predeterminado es 1 (VERDADERO). El valor 0 (FALSO) añadirá los puntos de datos faltantes con valor histórico de cero. El valor 1 (VERDADERO) añadirá los puntos de datos faltantes interpolando entre dos puntos vecinos.</p>
<div class="note">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/note.svg" alt="Icono de nota" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">Aunque el plazo necesita que los avances entre los puntos de datos sean constantes, la función admite que falte hasta un 30 % de los puntos de datos, y los añadirá automáticamente.</p></div>
</div>
<br>


<a id="aggregation"></a>
<p id="par_id0403201618594650" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">totalización (opcional):</span> un valor numérico entre 1 y 7; 1 es el predeterminado. El parámetro de totalización indica qué método se utilizará para totalizar valores de tiempo idénticos:</p>

<table border="1" class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594696" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">Totalización</p>
    </th>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id040320161859464" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">Función</p>
    </th>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618564423" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">1</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594636" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">PROMEDIO</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618565433" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">2</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594692" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">CONTAR</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618565982" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">3</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594633" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">CONTARA</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618570026" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">4</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id040320161859460" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">MAX</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618570154" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">5</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594658" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">MEDIANA</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618570236" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">6</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594671" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">MIN</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618570394" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">7</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0403201618594639" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">SUMA</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
</table>
<br>

<div class="note">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/note.svg" alt="Icono de nota" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">Aunque el plazo necesita que los avances entre los puntos de datos sean constantes, las funciones totalizarán los distintos puntos que posean la misma fecha y hora.</p></div>
</div>
<br>


<a id="statistics"></a>
<p id="par_id0503201619582693" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">tipo_estadística (obligatorio)</span>: un valor numérico entre 1 y 9. Este valor indica cuál estadística se devolverá para los valores y el intervalo x proporcionados.</p>
<p id="par_id0503201619582620" class="paragraph" dir="auto">Pueden devolverse las estadísticas siguientes:</p>

<table border="1" class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582666" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">tipo_estadística</p>
    </th>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id050320161958264" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">Estadísticas</p>
    </th>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582639" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">1</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582658" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Parámetro de alisamiento alfa del algoritmo de ETS (base)</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582687" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">2</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582673" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Parámetro de alisamiento gamma del algoritmo de ETS (tendencia)</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619583658" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">3</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582780" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Parámetro de alisamiento beta del algoritmo de ETS (desviación periódica)</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582737" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">4</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582795" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Error absoluto medio reducido (EAMR) - una medida de la precisión de las predicciones.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582782" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">5</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582749" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Error simétrico medio absoluto porcentual (ESMAP) - una medida de precisión basado en los errores porcentuales.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582739" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">6</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582725" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Error medio absoluto (EMA): una medida de la precisión de los pronósticos.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582788" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">7</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582750" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Error cuadrático medio (RMSE, por sus siglas en inglés): una medición de las diferencias entre los valores predichos y los observados.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582741" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">8</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582771" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Tamaño del avance en el plazo (intervalo x). Cuando se detecta un avance de meses, trimestres o años, el tamaño del avance se establece en meses; si el plazo se especifica con las horas, en días; y en los demás casos, el valor es numérico.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582767" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">9</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0503201619582717" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">Cantidad de muestras en el período: equivale al argumento <span class="emph">longitud_período</span>, o bien, al número calculado si el valor de <span class="emph">longitud_período</span> es 1.</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
</table>
<br>



<a id="confidence"></a>
<p id="par_id0503201619582665" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">nivel_confianza (obligatorio)</span>: un valor numérico entre 0 y 1 (exclusivo); el predeterminado es 0,95. Este valor indica el nivel de confianza del intervalo de predicción calculado.</p>
<div class="note">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/note.svg" alt="Icono de nota" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">Con valores menores o iguales que 0 o mayores o iguales que 1, las funciones devolverán el error #¡NUM!</p></div>
</div>
<br>


<a id="numsampperiod"></a>
<p id="par_id0603201609412381" class="paragraph" dir="auto"><span class="emph">longitud_período (opcional)</span>: un valor numérico mayor que o igual a 0; el predeterminado es 1. Este entero indica la cantidad de muestras en un período.</p>
<div class="note">
<div class="noteicon" dir="auto"><img src="media/icon-themes/res/helpimg/note.svg" alt="Icono de nota" style="width:40px;height:40px;"></div>
<div class="notetext"><p dir="auto">Un valor de 1 indica que Calc determinará el número de muestras del período automáticamente.<br>Un valor de 0 indica que no existen efectos periódicos y que cualquier previsión se habrá de calcular con el algoritmo EDS.<br>Para el resto de los valores positivos, las previsiones se calcularán con el algoritmo ETS.<br>Para valores que no sean enteros positivos, la función devuelve el error #¡NUM!</p></div>
</div>
<br>


<a id="etsadd"></a>
<p id="par_id0603201608440579" class="code" dir="auto">pronóstico = valor_base + tendencia * ∆x + desviación_periódica.</p>


<a id="etsmult"></a>
<p id="par_id0603201608440675" class="code" dir="auto">pronóstico = ( valor_base + tendencia * ∆x) * desviación_periódica.</p>


<a id="exampledata"></a>
<div class="embedded">
<a id="sectionexample"></a>
        <h4 id="hd_id281171" dir="auto">Ejemplo</h4>
    </div>
  <p id="hd_id0603201610005723" class="paragraph" dir="auto">La tabla siguiente contiene un plazo y sus valores asociados:</p>
<table border="1" class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
  <tr>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610293753" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto"></p>
    </td>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610300936" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">A</p>
    </th>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610303544" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">B</p>
    </th>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610294112" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">1</p>
    </th>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610312235" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">Plazo</p>
    </th>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610312228" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">Valores</p>
    </th>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id090320161029434" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">2</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610301211" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">01/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610303777" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">112</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610294532" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">3</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610301377" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">02/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610303972" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">118</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610294658" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">4</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610301586" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">03/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610304214" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">132</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610294721" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">5</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610301829" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">04/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610304365" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">100</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610294810" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">6</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610301986" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">05/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610304419" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">121</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295069" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">7</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302140" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">06/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id090320161030452" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">135</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295133" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">8</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302288" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">07/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610304756" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">148</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295347" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">9</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302389" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">08/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id090320161030480" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">148</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295495" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">10</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302420" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">09/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610304994" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">136</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295668" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">11</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302687" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">10/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610305156" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">119</p>
    </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610295729" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">12</p>
    </th>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302713" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">11/2013</p>
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    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610305294" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">104</p>
    </td>
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    <th rowspan="" colspan="" class="tableheadcell" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610300473" class="tableheadintable" dir="auto">13</p>
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    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610302922" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">12/2013</p>
    </td>
    <td rowspan="" colspan="" dir="auto">
      <p id="par_id0903201610305330" class="tablecontentintable" dir="auto">118</p>
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DIR : / usr/ share/ libreoffice/ help/ es/ text/ scalc/ 01/
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